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DTSTAMP:20260412T012531
DTSTART:20171018T193000
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URL:https://murmitoyen.com/events/vanille/udem/detail/786072-the-confidence
 -trap-dysfunctional-dialogues-about-climate
LOCATION:Université de Montréal - Pavillon André-Aisenstadt\, 2920\, che
 min de la Tour\, Montréal\, QC\, Canada\, H3T 1N8
SUMMARY:The Confidence Trap: Dysfunctional Dialogues about Climate
DESCRIPTION:Grandes conférences du Centre de recherches mathématiques
\nC
 onférence de Roger M. Cooke\, Resources for the Future\, Washington\, DC 
 and Technische Universiteit Delft\, The Netherlands
\nAbstractMutilation o
 f facts\, scriptural snake oil\, gerrymandering the proof burden\, bloated
  overconfidence and outright lies – these are among the miasmas fouling 
 the public debate about climate change. The surprise is not that people tr
 y these stratagems\, but that they are successful. A snarly cognitive illu
 sion is preventing us from dealing rationally with climate uncertainties (
 a cognitive illusion is like an optical illusion involving the brain inste
 ad of the eyes). After a 'syllabus of errors'\, this talk will focus on be
 tter ways to capture and incorporate expert's judgments on climate change.
  Developed in quantitative risk analysis\, structured expert judgment has 
 been used in a wide range of applications from nuclear safety\, public hea
 lth\, investment banking to policy analysis and natural hazards. It is now
  poised to enter the climate debate in earnest. Can it help? It's time to 
 find out.
\nRegistration
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